Bill Freeman wrote:

I'll bet on a rudder actuator disconnect, then rudder flutter.
Rudder and fin, gone.  Front seats are now also for
passengers.  Fire and engine "restart" noises as the
airframe spins in yaw causing compressor stalls with
attendant fireballs, and then enough side loads to
rip one engine off the wing.

Bill Freeman

Paul wrote:

There was an article in the LA Times stating
the material above the bolts holding the vertical tail
on failed. "some weakness in the material - a combination of aluminum
and composite material." Anybody know what this material is?

Mark Wrathall wrote:
All the Boeing widebody twins run three actuators on the rudder and each
elevator, one for each hydraulic system. The A300 was the first airbus so I
doubt it is far from this configuration. It is not fly by wire.

Having been designed back in the late sixties, with a first flight in OCT
1972, I doubt the A300 has any composites in the primary structure. Although
far less conservative than Boeing (who only has composite primary structure
on the 777), the A300 was a first design for a new organisation, and would
have been kept on a short leash by the airworthiness authorities.

The root cause investigation on this crash should go pretty fast seeing as
they have the FDR/CVR data and the most likely suspect components weren't
consumed in the post crash fire.

Mark we have had reports that it is indeed carbon fiber or graphite.
The FDR is severely damaged and they had to send it back to the maker
to see if they can get any data at all out of what is left.

Paul Lamar
 
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